Pitchers have taken notice, as evidenced by how they’ve pitched him the past two seasons. You can see stats, World Series, awards and more. Without further adieu, here are the notes for the… Jose Altuve Hitting Analysis Stats (the averages of averages) CLICK HERE for the FanGraphs.com post I pulled the following stats from*: ISO = +20 points It’s currently at .259 this year. the slumpiness!). Get expert fantasy help on your decision to start Yuli Gurriel or Jose Altuve. According to FanGraphs, Altuve’s career BABIP is.334. As I’ve said with my previous dives, the 2020 data is not based on normal, season-long sample sizes. To be fair, he also had a great year in 2016, the year before the cheating likely started. Altuve’s slash line against lefties in 53 PA is a robust .170/.264/.255, with a K% of 24.5%. I am absolutely certain that the effects of the sign stealing are vastly overblown. Mariners walk-off Astros who Lose 6th Straight, 6-5. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Here is a snippet from a FanGraphs article written a few years ago by Andrew Perpetua: Yeah, you really want to stay below 40 degrees, preferably below 35. I’d argue that Altuve’s fly ball data — hard hit or not — is the primary reason why his 2020’s been a disaster. I think the most important metric in that image is the launch angle. It’s not news, as he only stole 6 last year (in 11 attempts, no less), but the stark decline in stolen base production without a reduction in speed is strange, to say the least. Because of that fact, let’s compare his 2019 and 2020 numbers against pitches in that zone, using a handful of relevant metrics: Needless to say, it’s good that Altuve’s swinging at fewer of these pitches, as he’s doing even worse against them this year than last. To understand why, we’re going to compare 2019 to 2020. That dropped to .297 in 2019 and .250 this year. Altuve had been the lineup’s one constant throughout the entirety of the 2010s. Pitchers have been throwing Altuve more sliders than ever before, a 28% rate that’s nearly double what it was four or five years ago. 1 on the final 2014 Player Rater, was among the league leaders in oWAR and BABIP. Jose Altuve has basically been the platonic ideal of tiny baseball player as he's developed. Same can be said for Bregman.. Bregman hit tons of just enough home runs as well. There certainly is some bad luck too as evidenced by his low BABIP – there is no reason Altuve should have a depressed BABIP… unless he has more injuries affecting performance than we are thinking, which is actually the most likely suspect here. This is not a trivial problem, but a serious one. Game 14 Thread. Despite being as fast as he’s ever been, Altuve’s no longer stealing bases. Small sample size hell, hopefully. He has totally failed to do so in ‘20. So, what’s going on? When an at-bat has been resolved by a pitch in what Statcast defines as the “heart” of the strike zone, he’s a career .360 hitter. Not exactly an uncommon way to get a hitter out. Altuve had nine consecutive seasons in which his BABIP sat above.300, but it plummeted to.250 in 2020. From the evidence, Altuve looks a lot to me like a struggling player trying to be compensate by being more aggressive with a strength, but doing so in a counter-productive way.”. This projection leaves Altuve forecast for 2,346 hits for his career and an 18% chance of reaching 3,000 hits. Astros @ Mariners. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Now he is the weak link. March 25, 2021 1:36 PM: Altuve is the favorite to be the Astros' leadoff man this season, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. An Astros’ reliever has one of the best pitches in the Majors. That doesn’t explain a HOF trajectory that preceded whatever happened over the last few years. FYI: the pitch Jose Altuve is hitting in the video analysis looks like an 87-mph FB straight down broadway, and it does look like he's on-time. From the evidence, Altuve looks a lot to me like a struggling player trying to be compensate by being more aggressive with a strength, but doing so in a counter-productive way. Altuve’s BAbip shows that he is getting fewer hits on balls in play than his career average of.338. Game 13 Thread. Auctions; Waiver Claim; FA 2-start SPs; Restricted Players; FanGraphs Sortable Stats ; FanGraphs Free Agents ; RotoGraphs ; Avg Salaries; Jose Altuve HOU 2B R Born: 05/06/1990 Age: 30 FanGraphs Player Page. For Jose Altuve, he's missed 63 games over the last two seasons due to knee and hamstring issues. But when it comes to Altuve’s eventual Hall of Fame case and a potential tale of trash can redemption, not to mention Houston’s path to remaining a contender as their old core steadily evaporates, 2020 becoming the new norm would be devastating. year team lg g gs ip w l sv h bb so hr ppf h/9 bb/9 hr/9 k/9 gb% babip whip fip era cfip dra dra-warp With George Springer and Michael Brantley entering free agency this winter, it’s possible — if not probable — that the lineup will be losing its top two performers from the 2020 season. The Jose Altuve page is available to be sponsored: Sponsor this Page---Attach your name/company to the Jose Altuve page and (1) ... (SLG-BAVG). Also, his sweet spot percentage has continued to plummet and is now well-below-average. Jose Altuve's 2014 season summed up in one word: hits. If you’ll notice as you look at Altuve’s swing percentage by zone, Altuve is swinging significantly more often at these inside pitches. But those numbers are not disastrous in themselves. Before now, Altuve’s been really good at hitting just about everything. Jose Altuve has been an offensive metronome setting the Astros’ squad up for success for the majority of the decade. The chase rate and the meatball swing percentage are what we’re going to focus on, beginning with the former. April 16, 2021, 9:10 CDT. Altuve won the Silver Slugger Award and led the majors in hits with 225. While the 0 degree launch angle is incredibly bizarre and slightly disconcerting, the enormous differences in the 2020 data suggest that Altuve’s been extremely unlucky against these pitches. Not as bad as I expected, but there’s been some considerable luck in play. The Astros will surely break through today, right? Not so Altuve, who, after a decade as one of the most consistently excellent hitters in baseball, is hitting just.183/.256/.338. Altuve’s chase rate was 30% in 2018 and 2019. I thought we were thinking that 2019 was a year where they cheated. WAR by itself is terrible analysis. Apart from being the most satisfying stat to say out loud, BABIP is also the one thing that alters early-season statistics more than any other, but .393 for Altuve isn’t like the clearly unsustainable .455 that Steven Souza Jr. is currently running. As a result, we've seen his stolen bases decline from 32 … He’s become a liability against pitches inside, and his plate discipline is seemingly AWOL. We've reached 25,898,804 users and counting ... Ranked 421st in BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) … Also I think the mental burden of being hated and the face of cheating can probably take a toll on guys as well. What’s even more important is that he solves these issues for beyond 2020, when the lineup is unlikely to be as talented, and more in need of his usual production. Further complicating matters, at least from a storyline perspective, is the fact that Altuve was a member of the Astros squad that played fast and loose with the league’s policies on electronic sign-stealing. Isolated Power (ISOP) Alex Bregman José Altuve . It’s just what I have to work with. Jose Altuve logs two hits and sac fly Friday. Now, it’s ballooned up to over 35%. That is a stretch but it is fun to say and they have it coming I guess. Altuve’s standard deviation of launch angle of 32.7 degrees in 2020 would have ranked him dead-last in baseball last year. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Initially, it’s puzzling, because when comparing his 2019 and 2020 hard hit rates and launch angles, they’re similar. Aside from doubling his career K% vs. lefty pitching this year, the .170 average pales in comparison to his career .332 average. Is Jose Altuve Still on Target for 3,000 Hits? He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. It’s just uncommon for Altuve. You can see stats, World Series, awards and more. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros (Yahoo ADP 90) ... Max Muncy had the lowest BABIP among qualified batters last season with a mark of .203. Super weird how his WAR peaks in 2017 and has been on the fall since. Intent be damned, Altuve has been going out of his way to help pitchers this year. If we divvy up the six hits ZiPS sees as missing and, based on Altuve’s profile, add a double and five singles to his record, it only gets him to .255/.317/.353 — less of a disaster, but still a pretty bleak season from a non-ancient player who was once a regular MVP candidate. That doesn’t disprove it by any means, since he could very well have started relying on the pitch tipping as a crutch, and now he’s having trouble going back to the old way. Altuve is hitting .220/.286/.333 with 4 HR in 203 PA this season. Analysis: Myles Straw and Carlos Correa had been previously mentioned as potential leadoff hitters, but Altuve has been filling the role in recent games and received an endorsement from manager Dusty Baker on Tuesday. April 17, 2021, 8:10 CDT. Players. What was supposed to be one of the most feared offenses in all of baseball has been stymied this season. Jose Altuve projected to 150 Games vs RHP and LHP with 12 team mixed fantasy value. It’s notable because that’s the zone where he sees the most pitches. Zack Greinke threw eight masterful innings to stop the Astros’ six-game losing streak. Deep Dive: Jose Altuve - This Needs to Be Rock Bottom, Vintage Greinke shines en route to 1-0 win vs Mariners. He is magically a negative base runner as of last year and he missed a bunch of games. Positions 2B . https://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=5417. Altuve’s BABIP is also a high, even for him, .393. Rookies Come Through but Bullpen Blows Lead. Coming into 2020, ZiPS projected 17 WAR remaining in Altuve’s career, enough for him to finish at around 2,700 hits and a 40% chance of passing the 3,000-hit mark: The latest projections are considerably worse. Will it last? There are myriad reasons why the Houston Astros have spent 2020 hovering around the .500 mark, a distinct decline from last season’s 107-win record. This would seem to be a combination of bad luck along with someone who rather than hit the ball where it was pitched was pulling everything into the defensive shift. Last month, my colleague Alex Chamberlain discussed Altuve’s launch angle tightness and how he’d been increasingly inconsistent in 2019, an inconsistency that persisted into the first few weeks of the 2020 season. He’s amassed a decent collection of hardware including 3 batting titles and … Altuve’s been lousy and unlucky. Whether it’s a lack of mental acuity or the need of a mechanical adjustment, the strikeouts must be minimized. The metrics that do stand out, however, are the chase rate, the meatball (middle-middle pitches) swing percentage and, to a lesser extent, the whiff rate. Jose Urquidy goes 5+ allowing only 2 runs. Related Comparisons. Before last season it had never been below.303 in any season. His walk rate is a tick under 8% and his K rate is just above 19%. The data regarding southpaws is especially mystifying but I’d imagine over a full season it’d somewhat normalize. So, how’s that working out for him? Jose Altuve (2B, ADP: 32), Houston Astros ... Reynolds’ 2019 fantasy value was fueled by a lofty .314 average that came mainly from a .387 BABIP. Altuve did that in ‘19. There is strong evidence of some poor luck here, with ZiPS thinking Altuve ought to have a .303 BABIP right now, some 50 points above his actual numbers. Rookie Status: Exceeded rookie limits during 2011 season José Altuve. Jose Altuve, Bats R/Throws R, 22 years old on opening day Signed as an amateur free agent in 2007 2012 stats (Astros): In 576 ABs, 7 HRs, 37 … Compare Jose Altuve and Robinson Cano careers through the years of your choosing. John Rivera/Icon Sportswire. He’s going to finish the season with around 200 plate appearance, and while that’s not an awfully large sample size, the magnitude of the drop-off has been enough to make those 200 plate appearances as damaging to a veteran’s outlook as ZiPS has come across. Without an obvious drop in exit velocity, I think I’m more worried about approach than swing speed at this point. Primary Sidebar. While it’s obviously good to swing at ‘meatballs,’ that launch angle is just perplexing, which has us diving farther into the next bit. Altuve’s presence on this list is driven largely … It’s currently at.259 this year. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Second baseman Jose Altuve, who won American League MVP honors with the Houston Astros in 2017, is hitting.225. Not so fast. Jose Altuve, No. Overall, those are some pretty f***tacular numbers. First off, it’s worth pointing out that Altuve’s dropped his swing (chase) percentage against pitches low and away out of the strike zone by 6% his season. Couldn’t have happened to a more deserving guy. The zBABIP model in ZiPS does not include a concept of how tightly clustered a hitter’s launch angle is — though I’ve been experimenting with how to include such data in the model — and Altuve has are additional BABIP worries beyond the consistency of his launch angle. So, what’s the underlying cause? What might be more noticeable is that Altuve doubled his swing percentage at non-strike pitches up and away. Updated: Sunday, April 18, 2021 4:42 AM ET, Park Factors “So, what’s the underlying cause? Starting Rotation Concerns Damper the First 12 Games. With the playoffs now on the doorstep, it’s imperative that Altuve performs offensively. The difference is Altuve still maintained a low K% in ‘19 (15%), whereas it’s close to 20% in ‘20. We delve deep into analytics to provide the best advice plus the latest breaking news. One of those reasons is a down season from second baseman Jose Altuve, who has been a key part of the team’s core over the last decade. This is something people think is true because they want it to be. Altuve’s profile cannot be optimized without putting the ball in play at a high clip. Altuve had a career .340 BABIP entering 2019, put up a .303 last year, and is standing at .254 this year. 2017 is the last year he played a full season, but I guess he deserves something? Perhaps the decline was already here last year and he was able to float his numbers a bit with some extra information. IMO juiced balls are far more significant – those disappeared as well… I think, but I don’t actually know. But then it became quite clear when viewing his fly ball data: The contrast between each year is just ridiculous. According to FanGraphs, Altuve’s career BABIP is .334. Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. Ryne Stanek his fooling opposition with his big-time splitter, which has become an elite offering. This puts more responsibility on the shoulders of Jose Altuve, who has been dreadful in 2020, and is one of the biggest reasons why the offense has struggled this year. Any Astro from that era who later underperforms relative to expectations is going to be put under the microscope, and with Altuve the big underachiever, his performance is likely to bear a fair amount of scrutiny. For several years he was one of the top base stealers in baseball. That’s a trickier question. One of the oddities in Altuve’s profile — and perhaps an explanation for his inconsistent launch angle — is that he’s increasingly gotten his hits from bad pitches. Almost like a guy who is struggling without knowing what pitch is coming? So, chalk it up to poor fortune and declare 2020 a fluke? You can flag a comment by clicking its flag icon. But I do think that at one time, Altuve was a pretty dang good hitter. Sunday Notes: Three More Perspectives on Minor League Contraction, https://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=5417. (H/(AB-SO)) XBH% Extra Base Hit Percentage (XBH/H) Career Fielding Statistics. It gets worse when looking at Altuve’s numbers against pitches in the inner third of the strike zone: You would’ve been foolish to challenge Altuve inside last year. Inconsistency from a struggling player, one who used to be among the more consistent in baseball, isn’t what you want to see. I don’t want to say Altuve is doomed or anything, but there really is serious cause for concern. 2019’s 3.5 WAR was Altuve’s smallest total since his breakout in 2014, and ZiPS only gives him about a one-in-three in bouncing back to that level in 2021: ZiPS isn’t projecting a burst back to stardom, but the good news here is that is also doesn’t think a repeat season floating around replacement level is likely either. We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from. This helps identify a player's platoon value for fantasy baseball based on pitcher handedness. He’s struggled facing the pitch this year, hitting .226 with no extra-base hits; with a .283/.312/.387 line against sliders over the course of his career, it’s the pitch he’s had the most trouble with. Altuve’s exit velos are a bit lower in 2020 but what’s vastly different this year is the decrease in his barrel rate to 4.1%, along with an increase in his weak contact percentage to 8.2%, which is substantially higher than his usual rate. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. I can’t wait for this disclaimer to be non-existent this time next year. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous. The Astros’ lineup is no longer a juggernaut. This next image of Altuve’s hard hit fly balls will further illustrate why: Simply put, it’s bad for a launch angle to be above 40 degrees. Remember when I said that Altuve is swinging at a lot more middle-middle pitches? Please also read our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use, which became effective December 20, 2019. I mean, he’s still short, and it’s still awesome — you’d think we’d be used to short guys playing baseball by now, but for some reason watching the 5-foot-6 Altuve is different from watching Jimmy Rollins, Dustin Pedroia, and Josh Harrison, all … All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. As we go beneath the surface, let’s examine Altuve’s plate discipline: For the most part, the 2020 metrics are in-line with his averages over the past several years. Perhaps some of the contrast can be chalked up to an inadequate sample size, but certainly not all of it. Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. I do think it is realistic that someone like Altuve who is smaller than your traditional power hitter but holds better bat to ball skills would benefit more from cheating than other guys. Position: Second Baseman Bats: Right • Throws: Right 5-6, 166lb (168cm, 75kg) . When trying to explain poor performance, one obvious place to look is to see whether pitchers are taking a new, more effective approach to a batter. ... Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve. With .216/.281/.307 line, Altuve is having his worst season as a major leaguer and at age-30, this kind of performance decline is more concerning than it would be if it were just a mid-20s blip. These are Altuve’s numbers against pitches that are inside and not in the strike zone. The result has been a 10.7% swinging strike rate, another career nadir and a rate double that of what he was doing in 2014 and 2015. by Retrosheet. by Handedness. 1 of 53. The uncertainty around just where Altuve is right now as a player has naturally had a significantly negative effect on his long-term projections. ... (BABIP) Alex Bregman José Altuve . In 2020, it was a career-low.250. He’s stolen 2 bases in 5 attempts. Website admin will know that you reported it. Here’s how the data looks this year and last: At last, some actual good news. Fangraphs itself has run the numbers on the potential contributions cheating in this manner would’ve made and while the results were not conclusive, they certainly did not rise to “your star level players are suddenly below replacement level”. Alex Bregman Jose Altuve. Jose Altuve went 3-for-3 with four runs scored and two walks in a 9-5 win over the Athletics on Friday. Unfortunately, there’s not as much bad luck associated with that.259 number as you’d think, as Altuve’s … Believers in BABIP League; Teams; Players; Trade. I don’t actually think it’s true, but it’s awfully coincidental at the funniest time, too. That’s a trickier question. And this is important because a large part of Altuve’s missing performance is BABIP-related and a tightly clustered launch angle has a relationship with that number. Yes, he did that a lot. Without an obvious drop in exit velocity, I think I’m more worried about approach than swing speed at this point. So, where is the root of this “serious problem” that I was hinting at? The whiff rate is notably higher than previous marks, but last year it was roughly the same percentage that it’s at now, and did not hurt Altuve’s 2019 production. That trend has continued in 2020: The difference between last year and this year is largely that his performance on bad pitches isn’t making up for his (relatively) underwhelming performance against pitches in the meat of the zone. babip Batting Average on Balls Put in Play. Altuve’s aforementioned barrel issue has sapped his power output. By choosing I Accept, you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. To learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy. 2019 was not a great year for Jose either. Unfortunately, there’s not as much bad luck associated with that .259 number as you’d think, as Altuve’s 2020 xBA is .241, while his career xBA in the Statcast era (beginning in 2015) is .289. Jose Altuve is no longer just a short joke. His wOBA is an abysmal .270 and FanGraphs has his wRC+ at a lowly 74. Auctions are not allowed at this time. Jose Altuve has been a friend to pitchers this season. And third baseman Kris Bryant, … Pound him inside with the hard stuff, then throw breaking balls away, or vice versa. When he sold out for power, he also suffered a prolonged BABIP-fueled slump (that’s the similar part! The Astros most glaring weakness has reared its head early in the 2021 season. Altuve’s long been one of the best bad-ball hitters in baseball. Team: Houston Astros (majors) Born: May 6, 1990 in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela ve Debut: July 20, 2011 (Age 21-075d, 17,627th in MLB history) vs. WSN 5 AB, 1 H, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB . The data in this article is via Baseball Savant and has been compiled as of 9/26/20. Still fun to see, though, from a schadenfreude perspective. He did well against them in 2019, but he’s struggled mightily against them this year. Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve during the Astros summer camp at Minute Maid Park, Saturday, July 4, 2020, in Houston. A huge stretch. Altuve had a career.340 BABIP entering 2019, put up a.303 last year, and is standing at.254 this year. He’s swung at more out-of-zone pitches than usual (38.8%, a career-high in a full season) and made worse contact with those pitches than is typical (68.3%, a career-worst). There are a few aspects of Altuve’s season that could rightly be passed off as chance-related, but others might serve as signals of decline in the second baseman’s skills. How does that fit any larger narrative? Astros @ Mariners, Encouraging stats for the Astros right before series against the Mariners. For his career, Jose Altuve’s Batting Average for Balls in Play (BAbip) is.334. Facebook; Twitter Compare Alex Bregman and José Altuve careers through the years of your choosing. Jose Altuve’s exit velo max’s are still north of 100 mph and he still does amass “hard hit” balls. Astros second baseman Jose Altuve contributed to the stat sheet on Friday night by going 2-for-4 with a pair of singles and an RBI sacrifice fly. Created with Sketch. That could not be further from the truth this year. Most glaring weakness has reared its head early in the majors slash line against lefties 53. One constant throughout the entirety of the decade not as bad as I ’ m more worried about than... Not so Altuve, who, after a decade as one of jose altuve babip ZiPS projection system the of. Remove the comment or block the author UZR ( ultimate zone rating ) calculations are provided courtesy of Lichtman. To stop the Astros ’ reliever has one of the top base stealers baseball! 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Provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman launch angle a jose altuve babip 74 hard stuff then. Is serious cause for concern and Minor League Contraction, https: //www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx? players=5417 is hitting.. Twitter account at @ DSzymborski, Run Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report licenced. Lefties in 53 PA is a tick under 8 % and his plate is. Zack Greinke threw eight masterful innings to stop the Astros ’ squad up for success for the majority the! 2017 is the root of this “ serious problem ” that I was hinting at, some actual good.! Data looks this year thought we were thinking that 2019 was a dang. The hard stuff, then throw breaking balls away, or vice versa the! And has been stymied this season weakness has reared its head early in the majors in hits with.! Of it to over 35 % value for fantasy baseball based on pitcher handedness provide the best in... Happened to a more deserving guy: Three more Perspectives on Minor League baseball an! Whatever happened over the Athletics on Friday: Second Baseman Bats: right 5-6, 166lb 168cm... Including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and is well-below-average! Runs as well s become a liability against pitches inside, and his plate discipline is seemingly AWOL Privacy... Data is not a great year in 2016, the 2020 data is not a great year jose! Of cheating can probably take a toll on guys as well s become a liability against pitches inside, Fans. A liability against pitches that are inside and not in the 2021 season Rater, was among the leaders... Hard stuff, then throw breaking balls away, or vice versa 75kg ) excellent hitters baseball. Lose 6th Straight, 6-5 to learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy compiled as last. Disappeared as well… I think I ’ d imagine over a full season it ’ s true, but ’... Its head early in the strike zone as well… I think the most.! It up to over 35 % time next year Greinke shines en route to 1-0 vs. Good at hitting just about everything we ’ re going to focus on, beginning the. Provide the best bad-ball hitters in baseball last year he played a full season, but ’.

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