NOAA National Weather Service National Weather Service. A stalled front along the west-central Gulf Coast will contribute to a few severe thunderstorms and heavy rain with flooding over the next couple of days. Of course, you’ll also want to make sure you’re far enough away from a city to prevent light pollution. There is a simple index called Kp, a number from 0 to 9, which is used to refer to geomagnetic activity for a 3-hour period. (Protons cause faint and diffuse aurora, usually not easily visible to the human eye.) The green band that appears on the video changes colors based on the likelihood of aurora activity. This is the peak of what is called an auroral substorm. The accelerated electrons follow the magnetic field of Earth down to the Polar Regions where they collide with oxygen and nitrogen atoms and molecules in Earth’s upper atmosphere. It is this disturbance of the Earth's magnetic field which is the cause of the Northern Lights. Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights) - National Weather Service This picture represents the direction of the Earth’s magnetic field at its poles. Northern Lights and Noctilucent Clouds Aurora Borealis . Courtesy of Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado, Boulder. Forecast Forecast discussion 3-Day Forecast. It is this disturbance of the Earth's magnetic field which is the cause of the Northern Lights. When geomagnetic activity is low, you can typically see the aurora around 67 degrees magnetic latitude. The Northern Lights - where, when and what from the University of Tromso, Norway; Auroras now! During very large events, the aurora can be observed even farther from the poles. Aurora Borealis Forecast for Thursday, April 15, 2021 Latest Forecast = in 13 minutes, the Aurora will be Quiet When and Where are the Northern Lights Tonight? Top 50 solar flares Top 25 sunspot regions Top 50 geomagnetic storms. The sun has a heartbeat. Skip Navigation. The closer to red the band becomes, the more likely an aurora may appear in that area of the globe. But for a more detailed Aurora Borealis forecast, check … Chance of precipitation is 70%. 325 Broadway, Boulder CO 80305, 27-Day Outlook of 10.7 cm Radio Flux and Geomagnetic Indices, Report and Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity, Geoalert - Alerts, Analysis and Forecast Codes, Geospace Ground Magnetic Perturbation Maps, North American (US Region) Total Electron Content, Geoelectric Field 1-Minute (Empirical EMTF - 3D Model), STORM Time Empirical Ionospheric Correction, Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), Tips on viewing the aurora and maps of the typical extent of the aurora. The Northern Lights forecast is all about physics, formulas, and numbers, but don’t worry.There are many Northern Lights trackers, making Aurora prediction straightforward to the average person.Now it’s easier than ever to understand it. The aurora typically forms 80 to 500 km above Earth’s surface. The stronger the CME, the further south these displays are visible. (Tips on viewing the aurora and maps of the typical extent of the aurora). You can also use the NCEI Geomagnetic Calculator to find the magnetic latitude and longitude of any location. And if Kp is currently elevated due to a phenomena called corotating or stream interaction, then be on the lookout for elevated Kp and potential for auroral viewing 27 days or one solar rotation from now. In these collisions, the electrons transfer their energy to the atmosphere thus exciting the atoms and molecules to higher energy states. Northwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Space weather—caused by geoeffective solar activity such as solar flares—can impact the space between here and the sun, causing an aurora as a byproduct. The Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights) and Aurora Australis (Southern Lights) are the result of electrons colliding with the upper reaches of Earth’s atmosphere. Of course, local weather, light pollution from city lights, a full moon, and other factors can affect your viewing possibilities as well. Aurora can often be observed somewhere on Earth from just after sunset or just before sunrise. Northern lights are also called by their scientific name, aurora borealis, and southern lights are called aurora australis. A full moon makes it much more difficult to see an aurora. Along with clear skies, you have a better chance of catching the northern lights if you are at a higher altitude, according to NOAA. NOAA National Weather Service Fairbanks, AK. The National Weather Service Seattle said it won't be as likely to see the Northern Lights Saturday night. A copy of the text file is available. A plain language, single page forecast text product issued every 12 hours, at 0030 and 1230 UTC, with both forecast and observed criterion now broken down for each of the three NOAA Scale categories. Often the auroral forms are made of many tall rays that look much like a curtain made of folds of cloth. Solar Cycle Solar Cycle progression Historical solar cycles. Courtesy of NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. During the evening, these rays can form arcs that stretch from horizon to horizon. Courtesy of NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. Of course, to observe the aurora, the skies must be clear and free of clouds. And don’t forget to check out the moon phases before you go. Once you know your magnetic latitude and how high the Kp index needs to be, it comes down to choosing a viewing time of high geomagnetic activity by frequently checking the Kp index and the SWPC forecast. This model shows the latest activity level in video form. This is similar to how a neon light works. When geomagnetic activity is very high, the aurora may be seen at much lower latitudes around Earth that would otherwise rarely experience these polar lights. Thunderstorms and Flooding Along the Gulf Coast; Winter Returns in the Central Rockies. Geomagnetic Activity -- The Kp Index and the NOAA POES Auroral Activity Level In order to know whether you have a chance of seeing an aurora, you need to know the level of geomagnetic activity at the time you are viewing. The problem is that Earth’s magnetic poles are not exactly in line with the geographic poles. NOAA National Weather Service Marquette, MI. This solar wind puts a … The Northern Lights evolve from the sun’s activity that affect the conditions in space, To know whether you have a chance of seeing an aurora, you need to know the level of geomagnetic activity at the time you are viewing, In general, you are more likely to see an aurora at a higher latitude, closer to the North or South Poles, Tracking Changes in Earth’s Magnetic Poles, Navigating Our Planet with Magnetic Models, 64.5 (Tulita, Northwest Territories, Canada). And as … During large events, the aurora can be observed as far south as the US, Europe, and Asia. Archive. The sunlit side of Earth is indicated by the lighter blue of the ocean and the lighter color of the continents. Their occurrence is tied to the activity of the Sun, and the solar wind caused by the eruption of spots on the Sun’s surface. Space weather can also produce spectacular aurora borealis (northern and southern lights). Date: 2013 April Location: Alaska, Chena Hot Springs As geomagnetic activity increases, the region of the aurora expands to lower latitudes, in the direction of the equator. Simple, right? The green ovals turn red when the aurora is forecasted to be more intense. Space weather—caused by geoeffective solar activity such as solar flares—can impact the space between here and the sun, causing an aurora as a byproduct. (Protons cause faint and diffuse aurora, usually not easily visible to the human eye.) On February 3, 2021*, Geospace Model Version 2.0, which is part of the University of Michigan’s Space Weather Modeling Framework, will commence ope Kp Levels - Last 3 Hours Kp Levels - Next Few Hours (Projected) Ovation-Prime Model. US Dept of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service If the Kp is 5 or greater, the better your chances of seeing an aurora. NOAA indicates that weak power grid fluctuations may occur and some minor impacts on satellite operations are possible. When they relax back down to lower energy states, they release their energy in the form of light. from the Finnish Meteorological Institute Aurora Page from Michigan Tech ; Alaska Aurora Photographs (University of Alaska Fairbanks) & the new Northern Lights website Latitude64Photos.com by Jan Curtis Long Term Forecast (4 to 28 days from today) The Northern Lights tend to follow the 28 day solunar cycle. NOAA scientists at the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) monitor and track this phenomena related to space weather and have developed methods to predict the likelihood of significant aurora. US Dept of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Forecasting the Northern Lights! At some point, the arcs may expand to fill the whole sky, moving rapidly and becoming very bright. With the SWPC OVATION Aurora Forecast Model, you can predict the probability of a visible aurora by watching the changes in the green band as it circles the Northern Hemisphere. The Kp Index bar plot shows geomagnetic activity for eight 3-hour periods per day. Aurora comes in several different shapes. At these polar latitudes, the aurora can be observed more than half of the nights of a given year. There’s no doubt that the stunning light shows, known scientifically as the Aurora Borealis, are not only an item on many people’s bucket lists, but also a boom to the local economies lucky enough to have a front row seat for the show. The best place to observe the aurora is under an oval shaped region between the north and south latitudes of about 60 and 75 degrees. The final step in making your aurora prediction complete is knowing the best geographic location for viewing. The higher the bars, the higher the activity. Find other locations using  NCEI’s Geomagnetic Calculator. If you want to know how far south an aurora can be observed based on geographic location and the Kp index, check out links to the following maps of different regions. Luckily, SWPC has developed a handy table that lists many major cities and their corresponding magnetic latitude (see table below). Auroras exist in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, but the northern counterpart is far more popular for tourists hoping to catch a glimpse of the display. Polar lights (aurora polaris) are a natural phenomenon found in both the northern and southern hemispheres that can be truly awe inspiring. When space weather activity increases and more frequent and larger storms and substorms occur, the aurora extends equatorward. Find our the Northern Lights forecast with the Northern Lights holiday experts - the Aurora Zone. The northern lights, one of several astronomical phenomena called polar lights (aurora polaris), are shafts or curtains of colored light visible on occasion in the night sky. Late in the evening, near midnight, the arcs often begin to twist and sway, just as if a wind were blowing on the curtains of light. You can check out the SWPC Estimated Planetary Kp graph to see what has been happening during the past few days. How to Watch the Northern Lights Tonight. While they are famous for dazzling across the night sky, the northern lights are actually influenced by the activity of the sun. Some are larger and travel faster, up to 2000 miles per second. Here's … But for those of us who aren’t lucky enough to view the Northern Lights from our living rooms, like those in Iceland or the Canadian Yukon, how do we know when is a good time to book our plane tickets and bundle up for a trip to see this spectacle? Check out the World Atlas of Artificial Sky Brightness—the brighter the area in this zoomable map, the harder it is to see stars and aurora in the night sky. Well, not exactly. If there was solar activity at a particular time during the past cycle (28 days ago), long term forecasts will predict similar activity when that region of the sun again points at the earth 28 days later. NOAA indicates that weak power grid fluctuations may occur and some minor impacts on satellite operations are possible. The electrons are energized through acceleration processes in the downwind tail (night side) of the magnetosphere and at lower altitudes along auroral field lines. Then in the early morning the auroral forms can take on a more cloud-like appearance. The Northern Lights may be visible to people in the northern United States on December 9, 2020. Thanks to the Northern Lights, the country saw a 27.5% increase in tourism spending last year, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council. These colorful beams of dancing lights, typically seen moving across the polar skies, are the result of electrons colliding with the upper reaches of the Earth’s atmosphere. The red bars indicate a Kp higher than 4, which makes your odds of seeing an aurora greater. Auroras exist in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, but the northern counterpart is far more popular for tourists hoping to catch a glimpse of the display. Aurora borealis - the Northern Lights. Remember, the Kp level has to be much higher the closer you get to the equator: The table below shows a range of magnetic latitudes (along with example nearby locations) and the activity Kp levels have to reach to see an aurora: A more visual prediction tool is SWPC’s OVATION Aurora Forecast Model. 3 Day Aurora Forecast Historical View of the sun spotsFor 400 years, from the time of Galileo until now, we have been keeping track of the number of these sunspots and, a… Each section includes a brief forecaster written rationale. In fact, 2016 was an outstanding year for Iceland’s tourism industry. Fairbanks’ location is ideal for northern lights viewing because it is under the “Auroral Oval,” a ring-shaped zone over the far north where aurora activity is concentrated. Bars in red have a Kp over 4, indicating a better chance of aurora activity. From September until April, when the days are at their shortest and often their darkest, the Northern Lights are at their brightest. Solar activity report Sunspot report Geophysical report NOAA SWPC Alerts, Watches and Warnings. It must also be dark so during the summer months at auroral latitudes, the midnight sun prevents auroral observations. The Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights) and Aurora Australis (Southern Lights) are the result of electrons colliding with the upper reaches of Earth’s atmosphere. Additionally, Fairbanks’ low precipitation and distance from coastal areas contribute to consistently clear nights. The electrons are energized through acceleration processes in the downwind tail (night side) of the magnetosphere and at lower altitudes along auroral field lines. The Northern Lights The Northern Lights are a spectacular phenomenon that are hard to predict, and hard to forget! Nitrogen glows blue and purple. Every eleven years or so it beats, and it beats hard. For aurora viewing, the magnetic poles are more important. Weather and light pollution will also play a … To do this, you’ll check an index called Kp, a number from 0–9, which is used to rate the global geomagnetic activity for a 3-hour period. Photo by Neal Brown (Fairbanks), National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Space Weather Prediction Center Rodney Viereck of the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) in the US explained to Lonely Planet that the sun goes through a roughly 11-year cycle, which includes three to four years of solar maximum. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 30. So during low activity, you would need to drive north of Anchorage, perhaps to Talkeetna, Alaska, or further. ... (NOAA), the Northern Lights may shine across the night sky. SWPC provides a handy list of the magnetic latitude of major cities across the globe. This is known as the solar cycle and is measured by the number of sunspots visible on the sun. 12/6/2018 8:30:35 AM Photographer: LCDR Gary Barone Affiliation: NOAA Corps (ret.) In general, you are more likely to see an aurora at a higher latitude, closer to the North or South Poles. The NOAA says two factors will determine if you'll be able to see the Northern Lights resulting from the storm: geomagnetic activity and location. An aurora (plural: auroras or aurorae), sometimes referred to as polar lights (aurora polaris), northern lights (aurora borealis), or southern lights (aurora australis), is a natural light display in the Earth's sky, predominantly seen in high-latitude regions (around the Arctic and Antarctic).. Auroras are the result of disturbances in the magnetosphere caused by solar wind. Courtesy of NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The more sunspots, the more solar flare energy is being released into space (which means more aurora activity!). The aurora is not visible during daylight hours. To know whether you have a chance of seeing an aurora, you need to know the level of geomagnetic activity at the time you are viewing. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Northern Lights evolve from the sun’s activity that affect the conditions in space. Thankfully, science has the answer. Sten Odenwald, author of The 23rd Cycle: learning to live with a stormy star(New York, … SpaceWeatherLive Reports News. US Dept of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Northern Indiana 7506 E 850 N Syracuse, IN 46567 574-834-1104 Being able to see the aurora depends mainly on two factors, geomagnetic activity (the degree of disturbance of the earth’s magnetic field at the time) and your geographic location. Earth’s magnetic field guides the electrons such that the aurora forms two ovals approximately centered at the magnetic poles. on NOAA Scales R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout Impacts HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact. The aurora and solar activity archive. To give you an idea of how far north that truly is, Anchorage, Alaska, has a magnetic latitude of about 61 degrees. This all comes in the wake of the NOAA issuing a prediction for a G2 magnetic storm for September 1, with early Saturday morning and Sunday night both candidates for displays of Northern Lights. The Northern Lights evolve from the sun’s activity that affect the conditions in space. Snow showers likely. These diffuse patches often blink on and off repeatedly for hours, then they disappear as the sun rises in the east. During major geomagnetic storms these ovals expand away from the poles such that aurora can be seen over most of the United States.

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